Team
currently under construction…
Misha Yagudin
Runs a research consultancy Arb Research
GJOpen Brier score 0.183 vs. 0.273 median
7th place overall for the RAND Forecasting Initiative
Nuño Sempere
Cofounder of Sentinel
GJOpen Brier score 0.206 vs. 0.289 median
3rd place overall for the RAND Forecasting Initiative
Blogs at forecasting.substack.com
Eli Lifland
1st place overall for the RAND Forecasting Initiative
GJOpen Brier score 0.231 vs. 0.3 median
Co-author for AI 2027 and Researcher with the AI Futures Project
Jonathan Mann
Good Judgment Superforecaster™ with GJOpen Brier score 0.157 vs. 0.246 median
20th place overall for the RAND Forecasting Initiative
Security Architect in the financial sector; former Wall Street Data Scientist
Teaches computer science at NYU specializing in graduate-level cybersecurity
Blogs at abstraction.substack.com; invited author for LessOnline in 2024 and 2025
Greg Lewis
Good Judgment Superforecaster™ with GJOpen Brier score 0.226 vs. 0.313 median
Works in biosecurity, previously a public health doctor
Alex Lyzhov
Top-25 Metaculus peer accuracy out of 17K
ML researcher (LLM alignment, ensembling)
Participates primarily in AI-related forecasts due to expertise
Sam Glover
Good Judgment Superforecaster™ with GJOpen Brier score 0.230 vs. 0.311 median
Research Analyst at the Forecasting Research Institute
Blogs at samstack.io
Greg Justice
MBA
Pablo Stafforini
Runs Tlön
Ranked 2 on Metaculus for peer accuracy before "retiring" from forecasting
BPhil in Philosophy from Oxford
Previously worked at CEA and 80,000 Hours
Molly Hickman
Ranked in top ten on RAND Forecasting Initiative three seasons in a row
Technical product manager at Metaculus
Prev: Forecasting Research Institute (Data Scientist); MITRE (Research Analyst)
Computer scientist by training
Chinmay Ingalagavi
Pro Forecaster and Top 25 for the RAND Forecasting Initiative in 2021, 2022
Economics PhD student at UC Berkeley
Blogs at reallifelaughtrack.substack.com
Jack Chen
Top 20 on Metaculus (2020-2021)
1st place on Manifold (2022)
Winner in Metaculus AI Progress Forecasting Tournament
^ 1st place in long-term forecasting category, 5th place overall
AI research engineer